Is the new Government going to make it easier or harder for immigration?

This is what everyone seems to be asking now that we have a substantially National led Government. I think the main thing that might not be obvious to people who haven't experienced a couple of changes in Government is that in New Zealand when the Government changes, overall policies don’t tend to change significantly. Small details change of course that might make life a little better or a little worse depending on your viewpoint, but overall things tend to remain much the same.

What we can predict to a certain extent is that Labour led Governments tend to be more focused on welfare and environmental issues, while National tends to be more focused on business. This is a general leaning rather than a complete swing to the extreme though, and does not mean that a National led Government would allow businesses to do what they liked at the expense of welfare for example. There will still be some kind of labour market test to prove that there are no Kiwis available for the job before issuing a work visa, and residence pathways will still be focussed on the migrants who bring the most benefit to New Zealand.

We have seen already that the median wage threshold has been paused and will not rise this time along with the actual median wage. This makes sense because to tie employers to pay all workers regardless at this pay rate is nonsensical and you end up with very highly paid, low skilled migrant workers, working alongside disgruntled low paid low skilled Kiwi workers.

We will still expect to see the usual range of competence / incompetence and prejudice within INZ for visa processing because a change in Government is not likely to change much there. Internal policies such as checking certain applications more strictly than others may change on the whim of the Minister though perhaps, but when Governments change, the staff operating government departments usually do not change.

What we may expect to see is perhaps good news for some. We would expect that given National’s leaning towards businesses, work visas may have eligibility criteria widened and more residence pathways for more occupations may also become available. In order to support business growth, we would like to see the AEWV pay rate set at the market rate for the job and the worker's ability rather than a blanket median wage across the board. There is already an indication that the median wage requirement will be dropped, but no news on what will replace it. We would also like to see SMC pathways open to any ANZSCO level 3 job being paid market rate wages, instead of only getting points if you have occupational registration.

What we are unlikely to see are things like making applications easier or kindness to certain nationalities. The core purpose of immigration is still to manage the influx of migrants into New Zealand in a manner that is beneficial to the country, so it is highly unlikely that a new Government will relax this aspect. Broader eligibility criteria may allow more people to apply, but the application itself is still going to be as strictly assessed as it ever was.

In the end we all need to wait and see.